According to US Census Bureau data, the homeownership rate dipped in Q409, bringing the rate of homeowners at its lowest point since the second quarter of the year 2000. The Q409 rate of 67.2% is down slightly from Q309’s rate of 67.6%, and is also down from Q408, when the homeownership rate was 67.5%. Seasonally adjusted, the Q409 rate was 67.3%, down from the seasonally adjusted rate of 67.4% in Q309 and 67.6% in Q408. The seasonally adjusted homeownership rate is also at its lowest level since Q200. Regionally, The biggest drop was in the South, where the rate declined to 69.1% from 69.7% in Q309 and 69.8% in Q408. The West declined to 62.3% from 62.7% in both Q309 and Q408. Homeownership in the Midwest decreased to 71.3% from 71.6% in Q309 and 71.4% in Q408. In the Northeast, homeownership declined to 63.9% from 64% in both Q309 and Q408.
Housing prices to drop 5% more?
In normal times, people won't pay much less to lease a house than to own it. After all, if you're paying rent instead of a mortgage and taxes, you still get to enjoy the same rec room, chef's kitchen, and casita for visiting grandparents. So the surest sign of a frenzy appears when owning becomes far more expensive than renting. That's precisely what happened during the last bubble. And the surest sign that prices have fully adjusted arrives when the ratio of what people pay in rent versus what owners spend on the same property returns to its historic average. "If you look at the trend in rents to see where housing prices are headed, you're looking at the right measure," says Yale economist Robert Shiller. In recent reports, Deutsche Bank (DB) demonstrates how steady or even falling rents have pulled down housing prices, to the point where in many markets it costs about the same amount to own as to lease. That's a golden mean that America hasn't seen in almost a decade. Th
e DB research also offers convincing evidence that the wrenching adjustment in housing prices is finished for much of the nation, with a bit more pain to come in selected areas.
On average, DB found that families across America were spending about 87% as much to rent as to own in 1999. Hence, they were traditionally willing to pay a premium as homeowners, though not a big one. But by mid-2006, with the craze in full swing, the figure fell below 60%. At that point, Americans were spending an incredible 66% more to own than to rent. It was far worse in the bubble markets: In Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami, homeowners were paying twice as much as renters, and in San Francisco and Orange Country, owners' monthly payments were triple those of their neighbors with leases instead of mortgages from 1999 to 2007, apartment rents increased only 32%, but home prices jumped more than three times as fast, around 105%. DB reckoned that housing prices are more or less reasonable when the ratio returns to its 1999 level. Why 1999? Because the ratio was relatively stable throughout the 1990s, and it was the year the steep rise in prices began in earnest.. At the end of the third quarter of 2009, the overall number stood at 83%, meaning renting was just a tad more attractive than owning. Given that analysis, it's likely that prices will fall another 5% or so nationwide. The drop could even be slightly greater. One reason: Rents, the force that govern housing prices, are still falling. In 2009, apartment rents dropped 2.3%, and the fall continues. And enormous adjustments are needed in still-exorbitant markets such as New York and Baltimore. Thankfully, the improving economy and decline in the rate of job losses means that rents should soon stabilize and could even start increasing by the end of 2010.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Favorable home buying conditions
Builder Confidence Improves in February
February 16, 2010 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose two points to 17 in February as favorable home buying conditions and signs of healing in the job market helped boost the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.
“Continued low interest rates, very attractive home prices that appear to have stabilized in many markets, and the availability of the home buyer tax credit make this an opportune time for potential purchasers,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. “As a result, builders are slightly more optimistic that the housing recovery is finally beginning to take root.”
“Builders are just beginning to see the anticipated effects of the home buyer tax credit on consumer demand,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Meanwhile, another source of encouragement is the improving employment market, which is key to any sustainable economic or housing recovery. That said, several limiting factors are still weighing down builder expectations, including the large number of foreclosed homes on the market, the lack of available credit for new and existing projects, and inappropriately low appraisals tied to the use of distressed properties as comps.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
The HMI for February gained two points to 17, its highest level since November of 2009, with two out of three of its component indexes also rising. The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points to 17, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose a single point to 27. Meanwhile, the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers remained flat, at 12.
Regionally, February’s HMI results were mixed. While the Midwest and South each registered two-point gains, to 13 and 19, respectively, the Northeast and West each registered one-point declines, to 19 and 14, respectively.
Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be accessed online at: www.nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at: www.housingeconomics.com.
February 16, 2010 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose two points to 17 in February as favorable home buying conditions and signs of healing in the job market helped boost the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.
“Continued low interest rates, very attractive home prices that appear to have stabilized in many markets, and the availability of the home buyer tax credit make this an opportune time for potential purchasers,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. “As a result, builders are slightly more optimistic that the housing recovery is finally beginning to take root.”
“Builders are just beginning to see the anticipated effects of the home buyer tax credit on consumer demand,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Meanwhile, another source of encouragement is the improving employment market, which is key to any sustainable economic or housing recovery. That said, several limiting factors are still weighing down builder expectations, including the large number of foreclosed homes on the market, the lack of available credit for new and existing projects, and inappropriately low appraisals tied to the use of distressed properties as comps.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
The HMI for February gained two points to 17, its highest level since November of 2009, with two out of three of its component indexes also rising. The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points to 17, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose a single point to 27. Meanwhile, the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers remained flat, at 12.
Regionally, February’s HMI results were mixed. While the Midwest and South each registered two-point gains, to 13 and 19, respectively, the Northeast and West each registered one-point declines, to 19 and 14, respectively.
Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be accessed online at: www.nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at: www.housingeconomics.com.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Harder To Get an Uncle Sam Mortgage
By Tami Luhby, senior writerJanuary 19, 2010: 11:47 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It's going to be harder to get a government-backed mortgage from now on.
Looking to shore up its weakening finances, the Federal Housing Administration is set to announce stricter standards on Wednesday.
The agency, which insured nearly a third of new mortgages in 2009, will increase the premium it charges for its mortgage insurance and require those with weaker credit scores to come up with larger downpayments.
The FHA will also reduce the amount of money a seller can provide a homebuyer for closing costs, as well as tighten its enforcement of lenders.
"Striking the right balance between managing the FHA's risk, continuing to provide access to underserved communities, and supporting the nation's economic recovery is critically important," FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in a statement. "Importantly, FHA will remain the largest source of home purchase financing for underserved communities."
FHA loans have skyrocketed in popularity during the mortgage crisis since the agency backstops banks if borrowers stop paying. But housing experts are growing increasingly concerned about the agency's ability to handle rising numbers of defaults. (Cash cushion shrivels for FHA.)
In November, the agency reported that its reserve fund has dropped to .53% of its insurance guarantees, well below the 2% ratio mandated by Congress and the 3% ratio it had last fall. The fund covers losses on the mortgages the agency insures.
Federal housing officials, who took several steps to shore up the agency's finances last year, promised to do more. The new announcement is the latest set of changes to FHA policies.
What the new rules mean
The agency will increase its up-front mortgage insurance premium to 2.25%, from 1.75%. It will also ask Congress for the right to hike its ongoing premium, currently between .5% and .55% monthly.
The FHA will also require borrowers to have at least a credit score of 580 to qualify for the agency's 3.5% downpayment program. Those with lower scores will have to pay at least 10%. However, this rule may have little practical effect since Stevens recently said the average borrower score is 693.
The new policy also will reduce the amount of money sellers can provide to homebuyers at closing to 3%, down from 6%, of the home's price. That change will bring the agency in line with industry standards and remove the incentive to inflate appraisals.
Finally, officials plan to clamp down on lenders offering FHA mortgages. It will more closely monitor their performance and compliance with agency rules, as well as seek legislative authority to require mortgage firms to assume liability for all loans they originate and underwrite.
One thing the agency did not do is to broadly increase the downpayment requirement. Many industry observers said such a step is necessary to reduce the risk the FHA faces.
Agency plays crucial role
As banks have clamped down on mortgage lending, the FHA program has emerged as one of the few ways people can buy a home.
Banks are more willing to make FHA loans because they come with a federal guarantee to cover losses if the borrower defaults. And borrowers can more easily qualify for FHA loans because they only need 3.5% down and can have lower credit scores.
As a result, demand for FHA loans has exploded. The agency guaranteed more than $360 billion in single-family mortgages in fiscal 2009, which ended Sept. 30, more than four times the volume in 2007.
The agency insured about 30% of home purchases and 20% of refinanced mortgages in 2009. Nearly 50% of first-time homebuyers go through the agency.
The agency, however, has also seen a spike in delinquencies amid the mortgage meltdown. Some 14.36% of FHA loans were past due in the third quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This compares to 9.64% of all loans.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It's going to be harder to get a government-backed mortgage from now on.
Looking to shore up its weakening finances, the Federal Housing Administration is set to announce stricter standards on Wednesday.
The agency, which insured nearly a third of new mortgages in 2009, will increase the premium it charges for its mortgage insurance and require those with weaker credit scores to come up with larger downpayments.
The FHA will also reduce the amount of money a seller can provide a homebuyer for closing costs, as well as tighten its enforcement of lenders.
"Striking the right balance between managing the FHA's risk, continuing to provide access to underserved communities, and supporting the nation's economic recovery is critically important," FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in a statement. "Importantly, FHA will remain the largest source of home purchase financing for underserved communities."
FHA loans have skyrocketed in popularity during the mortgage crisis since the agency backstops banks if borrowers stop paying. But housing experts are growing increasingly concerned about the agency's ability to handle rising numbers of defaults. (Cash cushion shrivels for FHA.)
In November, the agency reported that its reserve fund has dropped to .53% of its insurance guarantees, well below the 2% ratio mandated by Congress and the 3% ratio it had last fall. The fund covers losses on the mortgages the agency insures.
Federal housing officials, who took several steps to shore up the agency's finances last year, promised to do more. The new announcement is the latest set of changes to FHA policies.
What the new rules mean
The agency will increase its up-front mortgage insurance premium to 2.25%, from 1.75%. It will also ask Congress for the right to hike its ongoing premium, currently between .5% and .55% monthly.
The FHA will also require borrowers to have at least a credit score of 580 to qualify for the agency's 3.5% downpayment program. Those with lower scores will have to pay at least 10%. However, this rule may have little practical effect since Stevens recently said the average borrower score is 693.
The new policy also will reduce the amount of money sellers can provide to homebuyers at closing to 3%, down from 6%, of the home's price. That change will bring the agency in line with industry standards and remove the incentive to inflate appraisals.
Finally, officials plan to clamp down on lenders offering FHA mortgages. It will more closely monitor their performance and compliance with agency rules, as well as seek legislative authority to require mortgage firms to assume liability for all loans they originate and underwrite.
One thing the agency did not do is to broadly increase the downpayment requirement. Many industry observers said such a step is necessary to reduce the risk the FHA faces.
Agency plays crucial role
As banks have clamped down on mortgage lending, the FHA program has emerged as one of the few ways people can buy a home.
Banks are more willing to make FHA loans because they come with a federal guarantee to cover losses if the borrower defaults. And borrowers can more easily qualify for FHA loans because they only need 3.5% down and can have lower credit scores.
As a result, demand for FHA loans has exploded. The agency guaranteed more than $360 billion in single-family mortgages in fiscal 2009, which ended Sept. 30, more than four times the volume in 2007.
The agency insured about 30% of home purchases and 20% of refinanced mortgages in 2009. Nearly 50% of first-time homebuyers go through the agency.
The agency, however, has also seen a spike in delinquencies amid the mortgage meltdown. Some 14.36% of FHA loans were past due in the third quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This compares to 9.64% of all loans.
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