New home sales data show encouraging signs

New home sales data show encouraging signs

 

The Associated Press

updated 12:00 p.m. ET, Fri., April 24, 2009

WASHINGTON - New home sales and demand for big-ticket manufactured goods both were better than expected in March, raising some hopes that the long slides in housing and manufacturing are slowly coming to an end.

New home sales fell 0.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 356,000 from an upwardly revised February rate of 358,000, the department said. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a sales pace of 340,000 units.

February’s results were 6 percent higher than originally reported, but home sales last month were down nearly 31 percent from March 2008.

The housing results fanned optimism that developers have slashed prices and construction enough that sales have finally hit bottom. Prices, however, are likely to remain weak for months as builders continue to clear out their stock of unsold homes.

The Commerce Department said Friday that orders for durable goods dropped 0.8 percent last month, about half the 1.5 percent decline that economists expected. A rise in orders for commercial and military aircraft helped cushion weakness elsewhere.

The small drop followed a 2.1 percent increase in orders in February. That was the first gain after six straight monthly declines.

While February’s durable goods results were revised down from an earlier estimate of a 3.5 percent gain, that rise in orders followed by only a small drop in March show some faint signs of life in manufacturing.

Still, economists cautioned the best that can be expected is for industrial production to stabilize. They do not expect a rebound from the current low levels anytime soon given all the problems facing the economy.

“The bottom line here is that it is still impossible to tell whether the sharp slowing in the rate of decline of core orders in February-March is simply a correction after the horrors of the previous few, post-Lehman months, or the start of a genuine stabilization,” Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

U.S. manufacturers have been hurt by a steep drop in demand at home and from major overseas markets, which face their own recessions.

Diversified manufacturers 3M Co. and Honeywell International Inc. on Friday reported large drops in their quarterly profits and lowered their earnings outlooks for the year. 3M said weak demand from U.S. customers hurt sales of LCD screen coatings, office supplies, steel coatings and other products, while Honeywell said the broader downturn in commercial aviation and autos weighed heavily on its sales.

But on Wall Street, stocks rose after Ford Motor Co.’s better-than-expected quarterly results.

Still, demand for transportation products fell 1.4 percent in March, reflecting a continued slide in orders for motor vehicles, which fell 1.7 percent, according to the government data.

That weakness was offset somewhat by increases of 4.4 percent in demand for commercial aircraft and 4.7 percent in orders for military aircraft. Even with the increase in orders for commercial aircraft, they remain sharply lower than a year ago as the global recession has depressed demand worldwide.

Excluding transportation, orders fell 0.6 percent last month, just half of the 1.2 percent decline that had been expected. Demand also dropped for primary metals such as steel, and for orders of machinery and computers.

While non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft — viewed as a good proxy for business investment plans — rose 1.5 percent, they also were significantly lower than a year ago as businesses have slashed efforts to expand and modernize.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, fell at an annual rate of 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the biggest decline since 1982. Economists believe the GDP fell almost as sharply in the January-March quarter. They expect a smaller fall in the current quarter as the recession becomes the longest in the post-World War II period.

Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said the durable goods data “fits within the broader pattern that we are seeing: the severity of the recession is easing gradually, but any actual recovery is still some way off.”

The lengthy downturn already has resulted in more than 5 million jobs lost in the U.S. since December 2007, and companies still are announcing mass layoffs and extended plant shutdowns.

General Motors Corp. on Thursday said it will temporarily close 13 assembly plants in the U.S. and Mexico, laying off more than 26,000 workers. The closures, which will start in May, will be as short as three weeks to as long as 11.

© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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Obama launches mortgage rescue plan

First participants in the Treasury Department's program to help homeowners avoid foreclosure include some of the nation's largest banks.

By Tami Luhby, CNNMoney.com senior writer

Last Updated: April 16, 2009: 10:15 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Obama administration's loan modification program is finally underway.

The Treasury Department announced Wednesday the first six participants to sign up for President Obama's plan. They include three of the nation's largest banks: JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), which will get up to $3.6 billion in subsidy and incentive payments; Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), $2.9 billion; and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), $2 billion. The others are GMAC Mortgage, $633 million; Saxon Mortgage Services, $407 million; and Select Portfolio Servicing, $376 million.

Additional loan servicers will be added to the list over time, a Treasury spokesman said.

Several major servicers, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, said they began modifying loans under the government initiative earlier this month. CitiMortgage signed up for the program on Monday and will start processing applications soon.

"We view this modification program as yet another incremental opportunity for thousands of homeowners to preserve and maintain the dream of homeownership," Wells Fargo said in a statement.

Distressed homeowners and housing counselors have been eagerly awaiting the program's launch since Obama first announced it on Feb. 18. However, it took weeks for the government to clarify the terms and for the financial institutions to update their systems and start accepting applications, frustrating many of those in trouble.

Billed as helping up to 9 million borrowers stay in their homes, the two-part plan calls for servicers to reduce monthly payments to no more than 31% of eligible borrowers' pre-tax income or to refinance eligible mortgages even if the homeowner has little or no equity. The government is allocating $75 billion to subsidize part of payment reduction, as well as provide thousands of dollars in incentives for servicers and borrowers to participate.

The Treasury Department said Wednesday it is capping the payments to servicers to allow more companies to participate. It is allocating $50 billion to the program, with Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and the Department of Housing and Urban Development providing the rest.

The modification plan calls for the servicer to reduce interest rates so that the monthly obligation is no more than 38% of a borrower's pre-tax income, and then the government would kick in money to bring payments down to 31% of income. Servicers can also reduce the loan balance to achieve these affordability levels. The government will share in the cost, up to the amount the servicer would have received if it had reduced the interest rates.

Only loans where the cost of the foreclosure would be higher than the cost of modification would qualify. Also, Treasury will not provide subsidies to reduce rates to levels below 2%.

It was not immediately clear whether the servicers must pay the incentives to homeowners and investors out of their funding share.

In addition to subsidizing the interest rates, servicers will use the Treasury funding to pay for incentives for themselves, homeowners and investors. The program gives servicers $1,000 for each modification and another $1,000 a year for three years if the borrower stays current. It will also give $500 to servicers and $1,500 to mortgage holders if they modify at-risk loans before the borrower falls behind.

Homeowners, meanwhile, will get up to $1,000 a year for five years if they keep up with payments. The funds will be used to reduce their loan principals.

The Treasury Department set the caps based on public data about the mortgages the servicers handle. Though the program mandates that servicers modify all loans that meet the requirements, the department feels the servicers will have sufficient funds to cover all troubled borrowers' applications.

"We're confident we'll have enough money," said Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams.

Separately, major servicers also recently started accepting applications under the refinance portion of the program. 

Obama urges millions to refinance mortgages

Contact Frank or Duane Toll Free 888-898-3326 to discuss your refinancing options

‘People can really take advantage of this,’ president says of low rates

The Associated Press

updated 3:21 p.m. ET, Thurs., April 9, 2009

WASHINGTON - Declaring “good news” in the midst of an economic meltdown, President Barack Obama on Thursday urged families to take advantage of near-record low mortgage rates by refinancing their home loans.

“We are at a time where people can really take advantage of this,” Obama said, seated with a handful of homeowners who have already lowered their bills.

But he also warned people to watch out for scam artists, cautioning, “If somebody is asking you for money up front before they help you with your refinancing, it’s probably a scam.”

Rates on 30-year mortgages inched upward this week but remain near the lowest level in decades, allowing borrowers with strong credit and stable jobs to save money if they refinance.

Low rates have sparked a surge in refinancing activity, with nearly 80 percent of new home loan applications coming from borrowers seeking to refinance. Freddie Mac’s sibling company, Fannie Mae, refinanced $77 billion in loans last month, nearly double February’s volume.

“The main message we want to send today is there are 7 to 9 million people across the country who right now could be taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” Obama said in a photo opportunity in the Roosevelt Room. “That is money in their pocket.”

Foreclosures and defaults continue to break records. A record 5.4 million American homeowners with a mortgage, or nearly 12 percent, were at least one month late or in foreclosure at the end of last year. And nearly half of homeowners with a risky subprime adjustable-rate mortgage were in trouble.

Last month, the Obama administration launched a new plan to provide $75 billion in incentives for the mortgage industry to modify loans to help borrowers avoid foreclosure. On Thursday, the president encouraged people to take advantage of a government Web site — www.makinghomeaffordable.gov — to see how they can get help.

In recent weeks nearly 200,000 homeowners have contacted Bank of America to find out if they are eligible to refinance under the Obama administration’s new guidelines, said Vijay Lala, the bank’s product management executive. “We’ve seen a tremendous amount of interest.”

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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Signs of Life in Real Estate Market

There's is a lot of activity out on the coast that may indicate a reawakening of the housing market there - and across the country.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
April 3, 2009: 11:51 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- No state has been harder hit by the housing bust than California.

It has piled up more foreclosures and has endured among the worst home-price declines. The median price of a single-family home sold in February was $247,590, down 41% from 12 months earlier, according to the California Association of Realtors (CAR).

And home construction in the Golden State has nearly vanished: December housing permits shrank to about a quarter of what they were during the boom years, according to the National Association of Homebuilders.

But there are signs that California's housing market may be coming out of this tailspin: Sales volume is increasing, investors are returning and inventory is shrinking.

Bringing back buyers
Low prices have brought out droves of buyers. In February, they purchased more than 600,000 homes, some 80% more than they bought in February 2007, according to CAR. And most of this activity is where prices are off 40% to 60% from their peaks.

In the Sun City area of Riverside County, for example, prices have fallen more than 35% over the past 12 months. Two-thirds of February's sales in the area were of foreclosed properties owned by banks, according to Chuck Whitehead, broker with Coldwell Banker Associated Brokers.

"The sales rebound is largely centered around areas that have experienced the biggest impact from the subprime crisis," said CAR chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

In more stable communities, where fewer homes were saddled with toxic mortgages, prices have not crashed as badly and sales are rebounding more slowly. But foreclosures still account for a significant portion of sales, according to Phil Jones, a broker with Coldwell Banker Coastal Alliance in Long Beach.

Most analysts foresee continued price declines in California, according to Nicholas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. "But [there'll be] a slowing of that decline, which portends the end of price drops."

That may already be happening in Long Beach, according to Jones. The measure he uses to judge market trends there, price per square foot, turned up in February, growing 5% to $360.

"Every one of my agents is very busy," Jones said.

Investing 2.0
Another positive sign that markets don't have much further to fall is that investors are returning to some markets.

"I spoke with one investor who is putting together a group of buyers and they're ready to get back into the market," said Jones. "They're planning to buy single-family homes in bulk."

John Dugan is one such investor. The San Francisco-based medical supplies salesman is using a portion of his Entrust Group-managed IRA to buy townhouses in the Sacramento area.

So far he's purchased three 840-square-foot, two-bedroom, one-bath duplexes. He paid just $35,000 to $80,000 a piece - down from their $180,000 to $200,000 selling prices a few years ago.

He paid cash for the first property and rents it out for $750 a month, a profit of $550 after dues and common charges. That's a 19% return on investment, without figuring on appreciation.

"This kind of pricing is something you only think of as Midwestern, not Californian," he said.

Supply dropping
The booming sales have whittled away existing home inventory to just six and a half months - down from 15 months a year ago.

"Typically, I would describe a normal market as having a six to seven month supply of homes," said Appleton-Young. "We have that now."

California's inventory now compares favorably with the rest of the nation, where there's a 9.7 month supply of homes on the market, according to the National Association of Realtors.

One wildcard, however, is that banks have kept many repossessed homes off the market. "Banks are spoon feeding them out very slowly so they don't overload the market," said Whitehead. But, he added, if they release a lot of properties during the heavy spring buying season, they "will be eaten right up by buyers."

Could the end be near?
All of those factors add up to a more optimistic forecast for California, which is seen as a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the country.

Appleton-Young said that while home prices should continue to decline for the rest of 2009, she predicts that the pace of decline will slow. In total, she's predicting a total loss of 19% for the year. But, "I think we could see home price stabilization by early next year," she said.

If that happens in California, it could spread to the rest of the hard-hit Sun Belt markets - and beyond.

"California was the pace setter for lots of the mortgage products that went toxic," said Retsinas. "The sense is if the problems can be addressed there, the rest of the country will follow."